By Alden Daniel and Kyle Taylor
“Over one hundred speakers took the stage ranging from the likes of Ted Cruz and Nikki Haley to Dana White and Hulk Hogan.
It was as united and energized of a convention hall as I can remember.”
That was how Bryce Harlow, our colleague and SVP of Government Relations at Avoq, described being on the floor of the Republican National Convention last week. Most notable about this statement is Donald Trump’s absence from it. The former president, having just survived an attempt on his life, demands the spotlight wherever he goes. Not so much at the 2024 RNC.
Trump is still at the center of the Republican party and this campaign, but he wasn’t the sole focus of the convention. Instead, other voices, such as Kai Trump, Amber Rose and Sean O’Brien, used the first three days of the convention to attempt to soften Donald Trump’s image and broaden the GOP tent.
Our research suggests these appeals worked as intended; their appearances had a significant impact on the American public. The most-read story of the week was Fox News’s live blog of the first two days of the RNC, during which O’Brien and Rose addressed the convention hall and J.D. Vance was selected as Trump’s 2024 running mate. And our proprietary Tremor Sense ratings, which aim to place all news moments on a single 0 to 10 rating scale, much like the Richter scale does for earthquakes (from which our Tremor Sense derives its name), found these moments to resonate nearly as strongly as the former President’s Thursday address, typically the marquee moment of any convention.
Young voters and Black Americans have traditionally been strong Democratic blocs, voting for Joe Biden by +24 and +84 percentage points respectively in the 2020 general election, according to Pew Research Center. Kai Trump and Amber Rose tried to put a different face on the Trump campaign. Kai Trump, the former President’s 17-year-old granddaughter spoke about the softer side to her grandfather, while Amber Rose declared “Trump and his supporters don’t care if you’re Black, white, gay or straight. It’s all love.”
Perhaps more important than their messages were the audience they reached. Both speeches instantly went viral on TikTok, a platform overwhelmingly used by younger generations and increasingly where they turn to for news. CBS News’s post of Kai Trump’s remarks has been viewed more than 57 million times, by far their top post about the convention, and 15x more views than their post this past weekend announcing Biden’s withdrawal from the race. Our Tremor Sense ratings scored Kai Trump and Amber Rose’s speeches as 6.9 and 7.0 out of 10 respectively, which falls just shy of the former President’s speech (7.3), suggesting these moments reached a mainstream audience.
Sean O’Brien, the President of the Teamsters union, spoke to what many would consider another Democratic mainstay: labor unions. While Democrats continue to have an edge among union members overall, Donald Trump won non-college-educated union members by six points in 2020. More generally, Republicans have made solid gains with non-college voters, and O’Brien’s appearance aimed to accelerate those trends. Our research suggests O’Brien’s speech also reached a mainstream audience, scoring a 6.4 out of 10 on our Tremor Sense impact rating scale: A significant moment, though not one quite as large as Kai Trump or Amber Rose’s speeches.
Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris has the potential to shift the election among the exact demographic groups the RNC aimed its appeals to last week. Before Biden dropped out, survey research suggested the Vice President was viewed more favorably by Black Americans than President Biden; more recent research suggests young voters prefer Harris by a larger margin than they preferred Biden. And while Republicans attempted to cultivate the image of a “softer” Trump, the most-read article about Trump’s Thursday convention speech suggests that image may have been short-lived. The GOP’s ability to erode Democratic support among these long-time Democratic constituencies and continue improving upon former President Trump’s favorable ratings will play a large role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.
At Avoq, we prioritize understanding the motivations of different audiences, helping us offer solutions that make an impact. Our 2024 RNC Impact Report dives into what media stories gained the most traction and what resonated online during last week’s convention. The findings help us understand how key moments from the Convention resonated inside the hall and online – and what contrasts in these reactions tell us about what’s important to stakeholder groups important to our clients. Download the full report here.
About Alden
Alden specializes in media and geopolitical analysis, working with the insights & strategic planning team to track online conversations, develop niche audiences and analyze current events. He works with a range of clients and specializes in the defense and technology sectors.
Before joining Avoq, Alden attended graduate school at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, concentrating in strategic studies and international economics. His research focused on Russian information operations and how social media impacts the democratic process. Previously, he worked for Philadelphia-based law firm Kohn, Swift & Graf as a paralegal, where he contributed original research on a wide range of cases, including terrorism, human rights and antitrust lawsuits.
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About Kyle
Kyle conducts data-driven research for Avoq’s insights team on brand messaging, media coverage and audience groups to inform clients’ strategic communications plans and help them develop public affairs goals.
Before Avoq, Kyle was a regional director for the North Carolina Democratic Party, as well as a field organizer in Iowa during Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign. Before that, he worked at Pew Research Center, where he studied topics including technology trends, the news media, populism and international affairs.
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